DO SOMETHING RIGHT - EXCEPT HE WON'T

Get the Hormuz Strait Open and Stop the Global Energy War

Late at night Monday until early Tuesday, Trump surrendered again to his deep seated - even overwhelming mania - to blame others for what’s wrong and call for their punishment. He called for Obama to be tried for treason, He criticized two Supreme Justices for not voting for his unconstitutional tariffs. He posted an AI cartoon showing Obama, Biden and Nancy Pelosi bathing in a sewage-infested Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool. He personally and his staff posted 50 items on his web account Truth Social. He had just learned on Sunday that the Iranians accepted none of his demands and made a number of their own.

His musings the days before the Iran reply came in were positive; he thought things were going well. Did someone tell him that or did he make it up because because it gave him hope that it was true. I’ve seen governments announce progress on a tough issue just to try to develop momentum leading to success. It’s sad, but in this case it is actually frightening. Does Trump have to live in a make-believe world after dark in order to cope with the world as it really is during the day? Is there a part of his mind that is connected with reality and another part in which his mind dwells that relies on fantasy and profound hatred? What we read Monday night was also clearly a desperate attempt to move his own mind and our attention and awareness away from the trap he has made for himself with the Iran war.

He is at the bottom. His US disapproval rating is at 62 percent, the lowest of both his terms. Americans disapprove of the war by a 2/3’s majority, and 76% of Americans disapprove his handling of the economy. His national debt has passed $39 trillion, about $113,000 per American, and will probably pass $40 trillion by the midterms of November. We pay more on the interest due on our national debt than we provide for our country’s defense budget.

The Arabs worry that Trump will just pull out, leaving them to face Iran over a war they did not start. American political leaders of both parties fear Trump may make a deal with China over providing military aid to Taiwan. The Taiwan envoy to the EU today expressed confidence that Trump would not do this - if this were to happen, he said, Japan, Korea, the Philippines and others would feel abandoned by the US. Republican Senators are joining the effort to pass a War Powers Resolution to cut back or end the US military intervention in Iran. Every country in the world, including our own, is paying every day for the failure to end the Iran war.

The circumstances are quite clear. Twenty million barrels of oil the world needs every single day are locked up behind the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s strategy is to force Iran to surrender to US demands by shutting down its petroleum industry along with shutting down everyone’s oil coming out of the Middle East. Not a single other country on earth supports this strategy of hostage taking of the global energy supply to force one offender to surrender. There is no assurance that Iran will give up before the deprivation of oil worldwide causes economic chaos countries everywhere. Japan and Korea are especially needy and concerned - two key allies in the western Pacific to help deal with China.

I am not a specialist on the Middle East. I am a negotiator. If a problem consists of two major issues to resolve, and one of them seems more difficult and likely requires more time, then I would suggest handling the less difficult and more readily beneficial issue first. That would allow non-parties to benefit quickly from that solution, improve the atmosphere for attacking the second problem in detail with sufficient time to create and demonstrate the value each party would gain from the agreement.

I asked Chatgpt for advice: here are some of the suggestions.

Overall: The purpose of the negotiation would not be for the US to claim victory over Iran or to try to humiliate Iran but to restore secure maritime petroleum ship movement through the Strait of Hormuz under conditions acceptable to both sides.

Iranian core interests or concerns include steps that would weaken Iranian deterrent leverage, how to deal with domestic groups who see agreement as capitulation, the effect of historical distrust of the US since the 1953 US/UK coup, and discrediting Iran as a regional civilization of over 2500 years. Iran would need an agreement that would enhance its security, provide measurable economic relief, and recognize Iran’s legitimate security interests.

US interests would include international freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf, prevention of energy blackmail, protection of commercial shipping, prevention of missile, drone, or naval attacks by Iranians or proxies, avoid regional war, and reassure Gulf States in order to offset longterm Iranian pressure. The US will need to know that shipping lanes will remain permanently open, Iran will restrain proxy attacks, that inspection and monitoring mechanisms are credible, and that sanctions relief would go toward civilian life recovery and not military expansion.

A first phase could be a 30 to 60 day period to include Iran’s declaration of safe passage for commercial vessels, a pause in escalation of sanctions during negotiations, acceptance of an international maritime monitoring group, and for both sides military communication channels to monitor traffic and avoid unforeseen clashes.

There would have to be an economic component with limited, conditional sanctions relief and release of aid (limited frozen Iranian financial assets?) for humanitarian and infrastructure needs.

The agreement, as do all, would have to allow all parties to claim success to their own populations in order to be supported and carried to completion.

Summary; the information above of course, does not settle the issue of the major threat Iran presents to the Middle East as a region, that of its nuclear enrichment and nuclear facilities. That task is the second and harder security achievement to reach, and it will take time. This is not a plan but a chronicle of steps by both sides that could bring stability and benefits to the Middle East.

I am not naive about whether this opportunity will be taken up. It is not Trump’s habit to engage in detail in resolving thorny problems. He’s more of a “one and done” player. With all that said, however, if he stepped forward to take up this process, many good things would flow from it. America has weakened its global military posture with the enormous drawdown of munitions, the cost of maintaining three aircraft carriers for a very extended period of time, and the realization by both China and Russia that this crisis may have enhanced their global influence at a time of American weakness. We could come out of this, but not by doing nothing. The damage of the economic world war and the failure to address the Iranian threat and the need for a stable secure Middle East will continue. President Trump could start the solution process tomorrow. But the odds are that he won’t. Let him prove us wrong.